O sertao resiste ao DESERTO

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O clima do sertão do Nordeste é ao mesmo tempo imensamente constante e absolutamente imprevisível. O sol é o constante. Por lá, o calor de 30 e muitos graus se repete em praticamente todos os dias do ano. A chuva é a imprevisível. No sertão não chove quase nunca, quando chove chove muito, e às vezes passa anos sem chover.

Sempre foi assim. Dom Pedro II visitou a região em 1877 para prestar solidariedade ao povo, quando uma seca matou mais do que a Guerra do Paraguai. Portanto, culpar as mudanças climáticas pela seca que, neste exato momento, assola o sertão, seria absurdo.

Mas o cenário preocupa, por dois motivos:

– A temperatura efetivamente está subindo – tanto as mínimas quanto as médias quanto as máximas. Todos os modelos indicam que continuará subindo. Mais calor significa mais evaporação, e o sertão já vive um deficit hídrico.

– O regime das chuvas, que sempre foi imprevisível, continua imprevisível. Aparentemente, a quantidade de água que cai não está mudando muito, mas ela está ficando cada vez mais concentrada no tempo. Às vezes chove num dia quase a água do ano inteiro. Tradicionalmente chove quatro meses e estia oito: é possível que a proporção esteja mudando para 2/10.

A combinação desses dois fatores aponta para um desastre natural: a desertificação. Soa estranho chamar desertificação de “desastre”, porque essa palavra geralmente é usada para eventos súbitos, rápidos, e a desertificacão se arrasta por anos. Mas seu caráter “desastroso” é inegável. Desertificação significa a morte das lavouras e dos animais, a falência do setor agrícola, a migração em massa da população rural, o alastramento de doenças infecciosas, o aumento da mortalidade infantil e mais um monte de coisas. Deserto é como câncer. Ele cresce. A presença dele por perto diminui os nutrientes do ambiente – e aí as plantas vão morrendo e ele vai avançando.

Mas a ligação entre o clima e a desertificação não é determinística. Existem seres capazes de deter o câncer. As plantas da caatinga estão adaptadas à incerteza do ambiente (sol sempre, chuva sabe-se lá quando). Elas sobrevivem quase hibernando quando o sol torra e ficam imediatamente verdes à primeira gota. Com elas, o deserto não avança, porque as raízes protegem o solo e retêm a água.

Manter a caatinga de pé é chave para o futuro do Nordeste, e não será fácil. A caatinga é hoje o bioma mais ameaçado do Brasil : 70% da sua cobertura original já foi modificada. A maior parte do desmatamento é para produzir lenha para as indústrias siderúrgica e do gesso. Há várias alternativas para essas indústrias: entre elas madeira de caatinga de reflorestamento. Menos simples é encontrar alternativas para o agricultor pobre que ainda vê no desmatamento para produzir lenha sua única opção. A possibilidade de cada família ter uma cisterna que guarde a água da chuva para alimentar um pomar-horta por gotejamento abriria várias possibilidades.

Outra questão central é garantir recursos hídricos para a população. O Nordeste ainda tem algumas das taxas mais baixas do país de acesso aos sistemas de água e esgoto, o que complica a convivência com um clima incerto. Nesse contexto, o polêmico projeto de transposição do rio São Francisco poderia ser um acerto: o rio garantiria um fluxo de água ininterrupto sertão acima. Mas o problema do sertão nunca foi a falta d’água: chove o suficiente, apenas de maneira irregular. Todos os hidrólogos e meteorologistas que consultamos afirmam que, se o objetivo é fornecer água para o abastecimento das cidades e das pessoas, mais importante do que cruzar sertão com o São Francisco seria melhorar o sistema de captação das águas da chuva, conectando os vários açudes para que um possa ajudar a manter o outro cheio.

A transposição interessa em especial porque ela poderia levar grandes volumes a estados como o Ceará. Isso viabilizaria indústrias que consomem muita água, como a siderúrgia e a criação de camarões. O Ceará precisa mesmo de atividades econômicas, até porque sua agricultura pode ser a mais duramente afetada pelas mudanças climáticas. Mas será que o melhor plano é mesmo erguer no sempre incerto semi-árido, em seu momento mais incerto, uma indústria que usa água intensamente?

Em agosto de 2010, realizou-se em Fortaleza uma conferência internacional para discutir os impactos das mudanças climáticas em regiões semi-áridas do mundo. O documento final do encontro, a chamada Carta de Fortaleza, traz o caminho das pedras para quem quer lutar contra o avanço do deserto. O documento destaca a necessidade de agir de maneira integrada, envolvendo as comunidades locais nas soluções.

 

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Publicado em 16.02.2015

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